Replication files for "An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics" 
Ulrich Mueller, James Stock and Mark Watson
Revised, October 5, 2020

There are four distinct steps in the analysis:

(1) Data: Link the PWT and Maddison data. Extract data for the countries that we use, etc.
(2) Descriptive Statistics: These are the results shown in Section 2 of the paper
(3) Bayes estimation of model, prediction, and POOS analysis: This involves MCMC Draws from the posterior, predictive distribution, etc.
(4) Post processing of the MCMC draws from step 3 to construct the various summary statistics shown in the figures and tables in Sections 6 and 7.

The analysis for (1), (2), and (4) uses Matlab programs. (Calculations used Matlab 2019a)
The analysis for (3) uses Fortran.  

All matlab files (*.m) are in the \matlab subdirectory.
The subdirectory \matlab_utility_programs contains some utilities that are used in this project. You matlab path should include this sudirectory.

(1) Data Construction, etc.
The raw data are in the \data subdirectory. The analysis includes
(a) Link Maddison and PWT data:  link_pwt_mad.m
(b) Select Countries used in this analysis: make_dataset_1.m
(c) Appendix:  List of countries, Sample Periods, etc.:  List_Countries_Sample_Periods.m

(2) Description Statistics, etc. 
Map of included countries: Plot_countries_map.m (omitted from ReStat version of paper)
Figure 1a:  Descriptive_Statistics.m
Figure 1b:  Descriptive_Statistics.m
Figure 2:   Descriptive_Statistics.m
Figure A1:  Descriptive_Statistics.m
Table 1:    Desriptive_Statistics.m

(3) MCMC Draws:
These are done using FORTRAN. The programs are in the \Fortran subdirectory. There is a README.txt file that describes the various programs.

(4) Post-processing

(a) The first task is to re-write the MCMC draws computed in (3) so they can be easily used for post processing.  This is done in
(a.i) Rewrite Mueller's MCMC posterior draws:  use Rewrite_UMFile.m 
Note 1: You will need to change the location for the input files to the subdirectory where they were saved in (3)
Note 2: The program has to be run for each of the models listed near the top. 
(a.ii) The same has to be done for the POOS MCMC draws.  This is done using the program rewrite_UMFile_POOS.m.

(b) Posterior Results for F: Summarize_f_posterior.m .. which computes the results in:
Figures 3(a), 3(b), 3(c)
Table 2(a)

(c) Posterior Results for C: Summarize_c_posterior.m .. which computes the results in:
Figures 3(d) and 3(e):
Figure A2:
Table 2(b)

(d) Correlation Analysis: corr_c_analysis.m

(e) Prediction Results:  Summarize_prediction.m  .. which computes the results in:
Table 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6

(f)Sensitivity Results: Robustness_Table.m
Table 4

(g) POOS Results in Appendix  ... use POOS.m
